Speakers:
Yuji Miyamoto - Chairman, Miyamoto Institute of Asian Research, Former Ambassador to China
Akio Takahara - Professor , Graduate Schools of Law and Politics of Tokyo University
Harunobu Kato - Executive Commentator, NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation)
Facilitator: Yasushi Kudo (President of The Genron NPO)

　KUDO: In today's Genron Studio we will discuss the results of the 9th Joint Japan-China Public Opinion Poll that was conducted between June and July 2013.

All forms of official talks between Japan and China, including Summit-level dialogues are suspended at present. However, given the escalation of the Senkaku/Daiyou Islands issue at the backdrop of worsening public sentiments in both countries, we feel that we have come to a point where we must engage in thorough reflection.

Let me introduce today's guests. Our first guest is the former Ambassador to China and a Representative of the Miyamoto Institute of Asian Studies, Mr. Yuji Miyamoto. The second guest is Mr. Akio Takahara, Professor of the Graduate School of Law and Politics, University of Tokyo. Finally, our third guest is Mr. Harunobu Kato, senior commentator for the NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation).

The worst results in the history of the Poll - How do the Japanese and Chinese understand each other?

This year is the ninth time since we have started conducting the Joint Japan-China Opinion Poll in 2005. Today I would like to take this opportunity to discuss the main points with you.
Firstly, the most surprising aspect of this year's poll was the result of mutual impressions.
Japanese respondents who answered that they have "negative impression" of China have increased from the already worrying level of 84.3% last year to an even worse level, 90.1% this year. Moreover, those in China, who admitted that they have "negative impression" of Japan, have reached 92.8% accounting for the worst value in the entire nine-year history of the poll. When looking at the chronological results of the nine-year poll, it becomes clear that mutual public sentiments have especially deteriorated in the past one year.

MIYAMOTO: I suppose that we may have had anticipate bad results, however, frankly, in the face of the evidence, I was very surprised. This result illustrates that worsening of mutual perceptions was influenced by the tensions over the Senkaku/Daiyou Islands issue. In addition to that, I think that several facts have contributed to this among the Japanese public: the fact that China has overtaken Japan in terms of economic scale, the position of Japan in the eyes of China, and China's economic as well as military rise.

KATO: This result is shocking. Thinking about the reasons behind it, I am also of the opinion that extensive media coverage in China triggering negative sentiments towards Japan has played an important role. Although at one point it had subsided, it had regained severity during the period in which this poll was conducted. Moreover, the issue of the Senkaku/Daiyou islands is portrayed not only as a sovereignty dispute, but is being increasingly connected with historical issues.

TAKAHARA: The deterioration of public opinion in China is much bigger than that in Japan. While in Japan the rise of negative impressions has increased by about 10%, in China the increase is by as much as 30%. The key are the intentions of political leaders on both sides. Agreeing with what Mr. Kato has mentioned just now, I also think that it was the knockout anti-Japanese campaign that has been very effective in triggering the spread of negative opinions in China.

I would like to ask Chinese political leaders for their interpretation of this result: should we see this as a success of Chinese government's propaganda campaign or should we see this as a grave corrosion of very important bilateral relations between two countries? Of course we would like to see the bilateral Japan-China relations develop. With that thought in mind, we hope that these striking numbers will prompt leaders on both sides to realize that this is not the way to go forward and that something needs to be done in order to ameliorate the situation.

Chinese popular sentiments are influenced by the media

KUDO: The poll has also asked about the reasons behind people's "negative impressions" of the neighboring country. As expected, in China 77.6% of respondents chose Japan's uncompromising stance towards the territorial dispute over the Senkaku/Daiyou islands.

In Japan, while 53.2% see the Senkaku/Daiyou Islands issue an important factor, many Japanese also worry about China's criticism and its tendency to use its super-power status.

The results of an expert opinion survey which has been conducted in conjunction with the public opinion poll show a higher tendency of moderation among knowledgeable people. The reason behind this is that general public, having little exposure to direct contact, tends to be more prone to the influence of domestic media. On the other hand, people who travel more to the neighbour country and those who have personal contacts and channels of direct exchange tend to be less prone to the influence of the media. Mr Takahara has just spoken about "propaganda"; I think that it is through media coverage that public opinion is shifting towards nationalistic sentiments. Please share your opinions.

Misunderstandings due to lack of direct exchange and the influence of media

MIYAMOTO: Certainly, I do believe that Chinese propaganda campaign is fueled by historical issues. However, that is because historical issues remain deeply engraved in the mentality of the Chinese people and it is easy to spur these feelings. This time they have been effectively awakened, triggering a creation of an issue linkage between the Senkaku/Daiyou Isalands and history.
On the other hand, the impressions of the neighboring country among knowledgeable respondents are not as bad.
Looking at the public opinion poll results from questions about the experience of traveling to each other's country, 85.3% of the Japanese answered that they have not traveled to China, while on the Chinese side 97.2% have never travelled to Japan.

Similarly when asked about the presence of an acquaintance 79.5% of the Japanese and 96.2% of the Chinese have answered that they do not have an acquaintance in the neighboring county. It is for this reason that there is a strong tendency to rely on domestic media as the main source of information.
Conversely, as the relationship deepens, I think that it will become possible to support those Chinese who do not have a Japanese acquaintance.

Japanese expansionism represents a perception gap created through media coverage of the Senkaku/Daiyou Islands
　　

KUDO: Every time I ask how the public in both countries views each other's social and political system. I am always surprised that many Chinese see Japan as a militaristic country. Moreover, this year's results show that the percentage of those who view Japan as an expansionist country has risen since last year to 48.9%. In other words, close to half of all questioned judged that Japan is an expansionist country. How can we interpret these changes?

MIYAMOTO: The question is how the Chinese media have covered the Senkaku/Daiyou Islands issue. It has been reported that the barbaric Japanese have stretched out their fingers towards a territory that until then has been neutral and untouched by either side. The image of the Japanese trying to snatch a territory by force has taken roots among the Chinese public.

TAKAHARA: The word "hegemony" describes a powerful country which utilizes its power in order to impose its will and opinions onto other countries. When you turn on the television in China, you see a female presenter dressed in a military uniform surrounded by military experts in a heated discussion about how Japan is arming and preparing for an onslaught against China.
Although we may not be grasping the situation entirely, upon a close analysis and review we must point out things that need to be pointed out. This year, we must hold a dialogue among media representatives.

How shall we perceive the Current State of Japan-China Relations?

KUDO: Now, in regards to how the people of both countries consider current Japan-China relations, while they were considered "" strained" by 53.7% of the Japanese last year, this number rose to 79.7% this year. And in China, a surprising 90.3% of the people say that "Japan-China relations are currently strained."

As there was a "neither" option last year, it is difficult to form a simple comparison on this matter, however, from the fact that only 41.0% of the Chinese said that "Japan-China relations were strained" last year, a 50 point increase in aggravated relations can be seen -- a very shocking result.

Furthermore, there is the question of "what will happen to future relations between the two countries." Up to now, there had been an optimistic view amongst the countries' people that relations "may improve after the following year." However, the opinion that "relations will become further aggravated in the future" was voiced by over 40% of the Chinese this time. Because 30% also consider that "the current state will not change," a total of approximately 70% of the Chinese think that the present critical state will either continue as is or become further aggravated.

"Not one of the most important countries" - The changing importance of Japan to China

KATO: Up to now, whenever I talked to Chinese people, they would tell me that "Japan-China relations are one of the most important bilateral ties"; however, there have recently been some people who question whether Japan can truly be called the most important tie, and the opinion is surfacing that "while Japan is indeed important, it is starting to no longer be one of the most important countries."

KUDO: On the other hand, in regards to the question, "how do you see the Chinese economy in 2030?" while in the past, the majority of the Japanese had replied that "China will become an economic power equal to the US," this year, 29.3% say that "it will be difficult for the Chinese economy to continue growing smoothly and its future is exceedingly unclear," displaying a cautious view of the Chinese future.

KATO: And once we start looking at one another this way, we start to lose the motivation to strengthen relations.

TAKAHARA: As for recent topics on China, from the Japanese point of view, there is, of course, the Senkaku/Daiyou Islands issue, but the image of air pollution is also very strong. Air pollution implants the impression of China's future risks in a very visual way.

KUDO: What Dr. Takahara just said is extremely important. And in regards to relations between both countries, there are shared benefits and many issues that must be solved. So, in reality, we must be aware of the need to strengthen our cooperation. I feel that there are many people in China who feel this way, however, this kind of sentiment did not surface in the popular opinion polls and it seems that, at present, only opposition seems to be accelerating.

The Large Change in China's Senkaku Islands Dispute since Last Year

KUDO: What was the Chinese people's understanding of the Senkaku/Daiyou Islands dispute a year ago?

MIYAMOTO: The great difference between last year and this year is precisely the Senkaku/Daiyou Islands dispute. I feel that it was what brought about this much difference in popular sentiment. At the same time, I think that it's also important not to forget that, as Dr. Takahara mentioned, the positive aspects are also increasing. However, in regards to the Senkaku/Daiyou Islands, many of the Chinese do not know that, while the Americans held effective control of the islands until the Okinawa reversion negotiations, since the return of administrative rights to Japan, it was Japan that had continued to hold effective control of the islands. What has been ingrained into the minds of the Chinese people is that the Japanese came and took what nobody had dared touch, through the means of nationalization. And this came to be the understanding shared by the general populace.

KUDO: In China, many people do not know that the Japanese had held effective control of the Senkaku Islands. Actually, August 12 of this year is the 35th anniversary of the signing of the Japan-China Peace and Friendship Treaty.
The text of this agreement includes an article precisely suited to our times, stating that the parties "shall in their mutual relations settle all disputes by peaceful means and shall refrain from the use or threat of force." In its second article it also states "neither of them should seek hegemony" and that "each is opposed to efforts by any other country or group of countries to establish such hegemony." While, at the time, this was written in consideration of the Soviet Union, when asked, "Do you know of the Japan-China Peace and Friendship Treaty?" in this year's popular opinion poll, 62.7% of the Japanese answered "yes" while 36.9% said "no," and of the Chinese, 41.2% replied "yes" while 58.8% said "no." When people who knew of the treaty were asked, "What part of the treaty would you be in favor of now?" the majority of the Japanese answered the first article (peaceful means to settle all disputes) while nearly 70% of the Chinese replied with the article, "neither of them should seek hegemony."
Where does this difference in understanding come from?

KATO: The Chinese government most likely promotes the fact that "Japan took the islands during the Sino-Japanese War," and the Chinese opinion is that "Japan has been hegemonistic since and is still now trying to push that through." The Chinese see Japan as hegemonistic simply from Japan's statement that "the islands belong to Japan."

The Media's "Pursuit of Truth through Fact," Transmitted from Japan

TAKAHARA: That's right. The concern that Japan is hegemonistic is, to some degree, an expression of China's sense of victimization, which has been embedded in Chinese society since olden times. So, in regards to what the Chinese call the "pursuit of truth through fact," I feel that an attempt at transmitting the truth in some form or other is extremely important for us. Because the TV and the internet are very important in the world today and because we ourselves can transmit messages to the world through such media, we should strive to communicate with the Chinese through the media that "this is the truth as Japan sees it." I feel that the poll results help us reaffirm the importance of the "pursuit of truth through fact."

MIYAMOTO: While the fact that so many of the Chinese did not know of the Peace and Friendship Treaty is, to some extent, imaginable, it was a result that I could not help but feel disappointed with. We have striven to create a kind of promise between the two countries. Japan, as a nation, has made promises under the resolution that once such promises are made they are to be fully kept. The fact that this has not been reported within most of China and so many people did not know of it is truly disappointing. It is the 35th anniversary this year and I deeply feel that it is an opportunity for both countries to reaffirm the Peace and Friendship Treaty.

Mr. Takahara also stated a very good point - how to communicate our objective truths to one another. For the Chinese, rather than the narrow perspective of how to implant an image of its own country in the people of the other country, communicating China's plain, undisguised truth and gaining understanding from the other country is much more to the interest of China in the mid to long run. I hope that China can make efforts to convey their objective truths to Japan from such a stance as well.