The Genron NPO (Representative: Yasushi Kudo) and the China Daily jointly released June 20, 2012, the results of the annual survey on Chinese and Japanese peoples' attitudes toward each other's countries, and on bilateral ties. The survey was jointly conducted by the Japanese non-profit think tank The Genron NPO and the Chinese state-run English-language newspaper the China Daily as the eighth poll of its kind. The findings of the survey follow:

About 50 percent of Chinese people expect a military dispute will develop between Japan and China before long, at a time when the peoples of the two countries are becoming more aware of the existence of a bilateral territorial issue, according to the results of a recent opinion survey.

When asked about the possibility of a military dispute occurring mainly between Japan and China in the waters of the East China Sea, 50.2 percent of the Chinese polled said they foresee such an incident in the near future or in several years. This far surpassed a comparable percentage of 27.2 percent for the Japanese pollees.

The question drew negative responses from 28.6 percent of the Chinese polled and 37.9 percent of the Japanese polled. In response to a separate question "Do you think that a territorial issue exists between Japan and China?" 62.7 percent of Japanese and 59.3 percent of Chinese replied in the affirmative. Only 16.1 percent of the Japanese said there is no territorial issue between the two countries while 27.3 percent of the Chinese said the same.

The territorial dispute involves the Senkaku Islands, a group of isles in the East China Sea. The territories, called the Diaoyu Islands by China, are effectively controlled by Japan and the Japanese government takes the position that there is no territorial problem between the two countries.

Asked about how to solve the territorial dispute, 40.7 percent of the Japanese polled said that it should be solved as soon as possible through negotiations. A comparable percentage for Chinese pollees came to 52.7 percent.

The opinion poll, the eighth of its kind, was jointly conducted by The Genron NPO, a non-profit Japanese think tank, and China's state-run English-language newspaper the China Daily from April to May this year. The survey has been carried out by the two organizations every year since 2005 with the aim of continuously monitoring the status quo and new developments in mutual understanding and perceptions between the Asian neighbors.

The latest survey will pave the way for Japanese and Chinese opinion leaders to discuss problems of mutual interest at the eighth meeting of the Tokyo-Beijing Forum, an annual workshop organized by The Genron NPO and the China Daily, scheduled to be held in Tokyo on July 2-3.

The latest poll shows that the ratio of Japanese who had an unfavorable view of China climbed to its highest-ever level of 84.3 percent, surpassing the previous record of 78.3 percent registered in the 2011 survey.

As reasons for their negative views of China, 54.4 percent of the Japanese cited China's apparently self-centered behavior for securing natural resources and energy sources, followed by 48.4 percent for those who referred to the confrontation between Japan and China over the Senkaku Islands.

The ratio of Chinese who had an unfavorable opinion of Japan slightly improved to 64.5 percent from 65.9 percent last year, but it remained above 60 percent, as against 55.9 percent in the 2010 survey.

Meeting the media at a Tokyo hotel with other key members of the Tokyo-Beijing Forum, Genron NPO Representative Yasushi Kudo warned that Japanese people's views of China have become almost as negative as in the early to mid-2000s, when relations were soured because then Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi adopted a hard-line stance toward pending problems between Japan and China. The two countries should take a serious view of the latest finding that Japanese people's opinions of China are at their worst level.

"This year marks the 40th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between the two countries, but we are aware that Japan-China relations are in a very difficult situation," Kudo said. Discussions at the forthcoming forum meeting should be even more serious than before, he said.

The survey on the Japanese side was conducted throughout Japan from April 26 to May 14, covering those 18 or older, using a door-to-door home visit method. A total of 1,000 valid replies were obtained.

To supplement the poll, The Genron NPO carried out a separate questionnaire in Japan during the same period. This survey covered about 2,000 corporate executives, academics, media people, government officials and others. Valid answers were collected from 600 of them.

The survey on the Chinese side covered men and women aged 18 or older in China's five major cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Shenyang and Xian, between April 19 and May 2. A total of 1,627 valid answers were collected using an interview method. Another questionnaire opinion poll was conducted between April 20 and May 4, covering students and teaching staffers at China's five major universities, Peking University, Tsinghua University, Renmin University of China, Peking University's School of International Studies and China Foreign Affairs University. A total of 1,003 answers were collected in this survey.

In the survey of Chinese students and teachers, 43.6 percent of the polled said the territorial dispute should be solved as quickly as possible through negotiations. Conversely, the largest 32.0 percent of Japanese intellectuals polled replied that the two countries should refrain from seeking a solution hastily while shelving it for now to keep their confrontation over the issue from becoming more serious.

When asked whether there should be a multinational security framework to avert a military conflict in East Asia, 52.1 percent of the general Japanese public said that a permanent forum should be established for consultations among countries concerned. The percentage was much higher at 89.2 percent in the poll of Japanese intellectuals. Negative views were aired only by 5.3 percent of the ordinary Japanese polled and 6.5 percent of the Japanese intellectuals.

Meanwhile, 47.1 percent of the Chinese polled believed there should be such a consultation framework, but 38.1 percent of them said there is no need. Of the Chinese students and teachers, affirmative answers came from 52.3 percent, far surpassing the 20.9 percent who had negative views.

Asked if there was any change in their perception of each other's country in the past year, 35.2 percent of the Chinese polled replied their view of Japan had improved, showing an increase of 7.7 points from the previous year. Conversely, the ratio of Chinese whose view of Japan became worse declined 2.3 points to 14.0 percent.

The ratio of Japanese who had a better opinion of China further shrank to 5.0 percent from 7.7 percent a year before while 60.2 percent of the Japanese replied there was no change in their views about China.

As regards the assessment of the situation between Japan and China, 53.7 percent of the Japanese saw the relations between the two countries as very bad or relatively bad, further worsening from the year-before result of 51.7 percent. The ratio of Japanese with a favorable view of the situation between the two countries stood at 7.4 percent, as against 8.8 percent in the 2011 survey.

The Chinese polled were almost equally divided over the assessment of Japan-China relations, with 42.9 percent in favor of the relationship and 41.0 percent seeing the situation differently.

The poll shows that only 20.3 percent of the Japanese polled expect Japan-China relations to improve in the years ahead, down from 24.0 percent a year before. The ratio of Chinese foreseeing better relations between the two countries was also down, by 7.4 points to 37.3 percent. In response to the newly introduced question "To which country do you feel a sense of closeness, the United States or each other's country?" 51.9 percent of the Japanese cited the United States. Only 6.6 percent of the Japanese replied they feel close to China. Chinese who had a sense of closeness to the United States accounted for 25.5 percent of the total while Japan was cited by 6.0 percent.

The poll included another new question: ''Do you think the Chinese yuan will become a key currency in the world?'' Those polled in the Japanese survey took a rather cautious view of the future status of the Chinese currency while views varied among ordinary Chinese people, and Chinese students and teachers. Only 3.1 percent of the Japanese replied the yuan would replace the U.S. dollar as a key currency in the world in the near or distant future. A comparable figure for ordinary Chinese was higher at 45.7 percent. But only 15.1 percent of Chinese students and teachers were bullish about the future of the yuan.

In reply to another new question about the safety of Japanese foods following radioactive contamination linked to the nuclear plant accident caused by the earthquake-triggered tsunami in Japan in March 2011, 82.5 percent of the Chinese polled said they are strongly or slightly concerned about the matter. This surpassed the 62.3 percent for the Japanese polled.