Overall grade for 2015　- "mediocre"

Overall grade for international cooperation in 2015 is "mediocre". This is because international cooperation made major progress on some challenges but failed on many other challenges as differences in approaches and lack of coordination surfaced among major parties involved.

That said, international cooperation made significant progress in 2015. In September, the SDGs were adopted while the historic Paris Agreement was forged at the climate change conference in December. This was epoch-making as all participating countries, developed countries, and emerging and developing countries, agreed on goals for halting global warming.

But this does not mean that U.N.-led endeavors, such as those seen at the climate change conference, contributed to successfully tackling all challenges. No agreement was reached on other major issues between developed countries, and emerging and developing countries, and those between nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear states. Divergences in their positions became clearer. This was another feature in global issues in 2015. For instance, a ministerial conference of the Doha Round of global trade negotiations in Nairobi, Kenya, failed to determine whether to continue the global trade round. The NPT review conference ended with no final accords adopted on denuclearizing the Middle East.

Global systems need to have comprehensive norms and rules, and divisions in these systems could damage the global community itself. However, barriers do exist for Internet governance in some countries. Efforts to improve the governance system of the International Monetary Fund proved to be lukewarm. This and other unfavorable developments allowed the Chinese-proposed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to emerge with rules that cannot be shared by the United States and Japan.

Assessment Standard

Importance for 2016

Greater importance should be given to the fate of the global economic system than to other global challenges for 2016.

The Chinese economy's slowdown has increased instability in the global economy while the latest U.S. credit tightening has prompted a devaluation of the Chinese yuan and this resulted in an increase in non-government liabilities in China.

It is feared that the stalemate in the global economy, if not addressed properly, will influence development efforts in developing countries and make it even more difficult to resolve major challenges facing the world, including problems related to conflicts and peace-building. This is why we regard instability in the international economy as the most important challenge in 2016. Politically fragile countries may become even more fragile, increasing concerns over the spread of conflicts and terrorist activities.

We believe the second most important challenge is global terrorism, notably interstate and intrastate violent conflicts. It is difficult to rank other challenges according to importance. We give higher rankings to challenges where international cooperation made smooth headway in 2015, but prospects are uncertain for further progress this year and conversely, those where international cooperation was not completely effective, rather creating rifts between countries concerned.

Development was cited as part of the SDGs adopted last year, but its course must be closely watched this year because of global economic instability. For better global health, efforts to reform the WHO and improve national responses to serious diseases/epidemics will be implemented from now on. As for nuclear nonproliferation, efforts to end the uncertainty in the NPT regime must be watched. In the cyber governance field, attention will focus on whether a common rule can be established among countries with different views, with the U.S. government's supervision on the ICANN system set to expire in 2016.

Opportunity for Breakthrough in 2016

Our judgment is rather negative on the prospects for achieving a major breakthrough in solving the crucial issues of "transnational terrorism," "interstate violent conflict" and "intrastate violent conflict." The biggest reason for this pessimism is the tangible decline in the prowess of the United States, which has resulted in the tacit neglect of Russia's intervention in Syria and annexation of Crimea, for instance. Admittedly, it can be said that a certain amount of progress has been made as regards the unified attacks on IS and the U.N.-brokered peace talks in Syria, but realistically, we should not be optimistic about preventing a further spread of transnational terrorism in 2016.

We give the highest chance of achieving a breakthrough to the "global economic system" because the stages for active diplomatic activities, bilateral and multilateral, have been set in 2016, including the G-7 summit in Tokyo in May and the G-20 summit slated for September in Hangzhou, China. The current instability in the global economy is attributable to the volatility of the Chinese economy. It should be addressed appropriately because the stagnation of the global economy and free-falling crude oil prices are not only affecting the entire world but also increasing the risks for interstate conflicts in fragile states and transnational terrorism.

By the same token, we give a higher ranking to "development" and "global health" in that achieving real progress on these issues is of crucial importance to rebuilding national governance in fragile states. As regards other global issues, there will be diverse discussions at diverse venues, such as the G-7 foreign ministerial conference in Hiroshima, Japan, to address the prevention of nuclear proliferation and the planned implementation of the historic Paris Agreement on climate change. But we see no major breakthrough in solving these issues in 2016.

Ranking Performance Grade in 10 categories

Performance in 2015

Nobody doubts that the Paris Agreement adopted at the COP21 in December was a historic achievement. The Agreement has created a new framework encompassing all participating countries, including China and the United States that are major greenhouse gas emitters but have stayed out of past global climate pact such as the Kyoto Protocol. The Paris Agreement has paved the way for efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions from 2020 on.

But this does not mean that a clear prescription has been established to save the Earth from the effects of global warming. Two warming limit goals were contained in the accord, but the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions are not legally binding. Even if the measures shown in the INDCs are all implemented, the 2 degree Celsius goal will not be attained. A global stocktaking scheme was adopted, but this is only a framework for efforts to make the Paris accord more effective.

As far as financial assistance from developed countries to developing countries is concerned, developed countries were obliged to make financial contributions to this end. A relevant budget will be increased from 2025 on, with a lower limit set at $100 billion. But this agreement is separate from the Paris Agreement and is not legally binding. Japan has pledged 1.3 trillion yen in financial assistance to this end in 2020, 1.3 times the present level.

The climate accord is eligible for an evaluation of "good" as a new start line has been laid down for future efforts to combat global warming, but an evaluation of "successful" cannot be awarded at present because it is unclear what the accord will actually achieve.

Reform to promote international cooperation in 2016

There has not been enough environment-related international cooperation so far under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change or the Kyoto Protocol. Similarly, discussions among advanced countries tend to become ill-conceived at the United Nations on policy measures related to technological innovation.

Development and diffusion of an innovative low-carbon technology is necessary, however, to keep global temperatures "well below" 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times by this century's end. As such, the Paris Agreement clearly states the definitive importance of promoting/realizing technological innovation for taking long-term climate measures, and achieving economic growth and sustainability.

To this end, the Japanese government has been holding the Innovation for Cool Earth Forum since 2014. At this forum, researchers from around the world, as well as those in industry and policymakers, share information and support technological development activities in creating a low-carbon society. Japan should grasp mounting global moves that pursue technological innovation in that arena at the 2016 Ise-Shima Summit and COP22. As an effective first step, our government should hold broad discussions on joint R&D among advanced nations, design systems featuring appropriate intellectual property protection rules, capital allocation, and on the necessary framework for diffusion of technology to developing countries.

Performance in 2015

The Iran nuclear agreement was a significant step for nonproliferation as it prevented an emergence of a new nuclear power. This is a historic achievement for 2016. Should Iran have proceeded with its nuclear development, it would have been feared that nuclear proliferation in the Middle East could not be halted. In January 2016, Iran's adherence to the agreement was confirmed, and this paved the way for the United States and European countries involved to remove their economic sanctions against Iran. The development was of great significance, in that the Iranian nuclear issue as a major source of concern for nuclear nonproliferation efforts has come to an end for now.

The remaining concern is the North Korean nuclear threat. North Korea carried out what it claimed to be a hydrogen bomb test only a few weeks ago. Therefore, this is excluded from our evaluation. But the overall situation surrounding moves for nuclear disarmament and nuclear proliferation indicates that no expectations will be warranted in 2016 as to whether nuclear weapons states will work together in harmony. No progress is seen, either, on nuclear disarmament between the United States and Russia amid soured relations between the two powers. The review conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons from April to May in 2015 ended with no final document adopted on ways to denuclearize the Middle East. The world faces the next five years without an agreed guiding principle. These incidents represent factors for our lower grade for the issue in question.

Reform to promote international cooperation in 2016

Japan will chair this year's summit of the Group of Seven major economies. As part of related gatherings, a foreign ministers' meeting will be held in Hiroshima, one of the A-bombed cities, in April. The meeting is expected to help the G-7 leaders to work together toward nuclear disarmament to create a "nuclear-free society" and, if their efforts are effectively combined with ongoing discussions at an open-end working group in Geneva, the upcoming summit will contribute to repairing the political environment for nuclear disarmament in the years ahead. Around the time of the series of G-7 meetings, Japan, China and South Korea will hold three-way meetings of their top leaders and foreign ministers in Tokyo. Now that moves are under way to impose tougher punitive measures on North Korea under the sponsorship of the United Nations, the tripartite meetings will be of great significance in harmonizing their attitudes toward the reclusive state.

Performance in 2015

2015 was an epoch-making year in advancing international development in that the new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted at the United Nations to follow and expand the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Top leaders of more than 150 countries participated in the agreement, which sets ambitious targets and goals for economic development, employment security, environmental protection and elimination of inequality at home, among others, which should be achieved by 2030.

The success and failure of the SDGs depends on the planned injection of development funds worth several trillions of dollars. Given the stagnation of the Chinese economy, free-falling crude oil prices and the resultant slowing of the world economy, it remains unknown at this moment how this undertaking will develop.

To complicate matters, the China-engineered Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was established without the participation of the United States and Japan. The AIIB may attempt to set new norms and make new rules regarding aid programs, which are quite different from the established ones pursued by the World Bank and the Asia Development Bank. Provision of soft and flexible conditions may be welcomed by borrowing countries, but two different sets of lending policies under different norms have been introduced to the area of international development and economic aid.

Reform to promote international cooperation in 2016

In order to prevent economic fragility from developing into political turmoil, and into conflicts in developing countries, it is necessary to create an international framework for the promotion of development assistance in a coordinated manner. To this end, we must call on China-led international finance institutions to adopt the common investment rules and increase the transparency. It is also necessary for the IMF, the World Bank and the Asia Development Bank to review their assistance activities in a manner that reflects the reality of the recipient states and effectively achieves the set targets of the SDGs. It is not desirable to see the presence of a global schism in the field of economic assistance to developing countries. We must strive to narrow the differences and create a better common framework to provide development aid. That is the task we should address in 2016. In this context, the G-7 summit in Japan and the G-20 conference in China will serve as great opportunities for the parties concerned
to discuss the matter in earnest.

Performance in 2015

The 14-year-old Doha Round of global trade negotiations was started for the purpose of unifying trade and development. Partial achievements were made, but no agreement has been reached in core trade fields, notably agriculture, manufacturing and services. The ministerial conference in Nairobi, Kenya, in December 2015, failed to bridge a rift between developed countries on the one hand, and emerging and developing countries on the other, as to the advisability of continuing the international trade round itself. Diverging views were contained in a ministerial declaration adopted at the conclusion of the conference. As a result, its inability as a mechanism to explore future international trade rules has become clearer.

In the meantime, the countries participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) initiative reached a broad agreement in October 2015 toward inaugurating a freer trade area in the Asia-Pacific region. This can be lauded as great progress. Because TPP agreements must be ratified by the parliaments of the countries involved, they will not be implemented immediately, but the latest agreement is expected to help boost efforts to break the stalemate and salvage the international trade talks.

However, schedules have been delayed into this year for concluding other broader-based free-trade agreements, specifically the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership combining mainly East Asian countries, and an economic partnership agreement between Japan and the European Union. The course of talks on concluding the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the United States and the European Union is not clear, either. It is far from certain whether the TPP agreement will provide impetus to promoting moves toward a new free-trade order.

Reform to promote international cooperation in 2016

A firm track must be laid to get broader-based free-trade agreements moving. The countries concerned aim to agree to launch the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership early in 2016. Japan and the European Union are also trying to conclude talks on their free-trade agreement early this year. Because a House of Councilors election will be held in Japan in July, it is uncertain if Japan and the EU can reach an early agreement, but it may be possible by the end of 2016. The Trans-Pacific Partnership initiative remains to be ratified by the U.S. Congress. In order to ensure that these trade initiatives will be realized, efforts must be continued until their effectuation.

Views are divided over the advisability of regional economic collaborations, mainly broader-based free-trade agreements. Some people welcome these initiatives because they say they will help facilitate a review of attempts to liberalize international trade and restart the global trade round, but others warn that regional economic groupings will create blocs of participating and non-participating countries, undermining the years-long global trade negotiations themselves. But these regional trade initiatives concern allied countries, and represent attempts to introduce new rules that are commensurate with a global economic and trade environment in the 21st century.

These moves are likely to be a most effective attempt to reform and restart the global trade talks. The Doha Round may be concluded eventually, but now that no immediate moves for its reform are likely, the regional trade initiatives are expected to set a new trend in global trade. If the free-trade agreements are to be put to work, the countries concerned should ensure that the initiatives will be open to as many countries as possible and accommodate changes in the degree of liberalization.

Performance in 2015

International performance in managing the global economic system was successful in some areas in 2015, but a gap emerged between countries about how to improve the situation, increasing fears of a renewed economic crisis.

Work on regulations to manage interbank liquidity aimed at reducing global systemic risks in Basel is expected to be successfully concluded while progress was made in negotiations on strengthening banks' capital bases to cushion the impact of failures of megabanks. But an effective means of controlling unabated flows of money into "shadow banks" remains to be found.

Moves to reform the International Monetary Fund as part of efforts to improve the governance of international financial organizations restarted after a hiatus of five years following U.S. congressional approval late last year. China became the third-largest contributor to the IMF budget. India, Russia and Brazil came 10th. But a slow U.S. response to the situation led to the emergence of new international financial institutions, notably the Chinese-engineered Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The United States and Japan are not members of this institution, whose rules are seen as incompatible with international norms.

The Chinese yuan unpegged itself from the U.S. dollar and shifted to a currency basket at the end of 2015. Then, it was introduced into the currency basket for the IMF's Special Drawing Rights. This series of moves was a favorable development. China's currency policy will become subject to global economic management and moves on financial markets. Restructuring efforts for the Chinese economy are welcome, but it is no longer powerful enough to drive the world economy. The Chinese economy's slowdown is rather exporting deflationary pressure to other parts of the world and affecting countries that are vulnerable to resources prices.

Reform to promote international cooperation in 2016

The growth slowdown of the world economy, as forecast in the IMF's World Economic Outlook for 2016, is not likely to develop into an international financial crisis of critical proportions. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that China's ongoing economic downturn will have a devastating impact on the economies of developing countries. Under such circumstances, it is worth noting how cautiously the United States will tighten credit by closely monitoring the developments of domestic and overseas markets.

In order to facilitate international collaboration in managing the global economic system, advanced countries should fortify their political determination to stabilize the global financial system, that is, the firm resolve to narrow differences over the global regulatory framework.

The agendas of the G-7 summit in Japan or the G-20 meeting in China should include the advisability of fiscal mobilization associated with structural reforms, an expansion of the U.S. dollar-liquidity providing facility, an enhancement of transparency in the code of conduct at the AIIB and other institutions, and stronger regulatory measures on private investment funds.

As the host country of this year's G-7 summit, Japan should take the lead in creating a consensus among the advanced countries while promoting a win-win relationship with developing countries in close cooperation with China, the chair of the G-20 summit.

Performance in 2015

The economic sanctions against Russia over its annexation of Crimea continue, but Crimea's integration into Russia is making progress with little prospects that the situation will be reversed. The Minsk agreement on the Ukraine crisis, reached in February under the mediation of Germany and France, envisaged a high degree of self-government in the eastern part of Ukraine, but it is yet to be implemented. The military conflict in eastern Ukraine somehow ceased in 2015, but peace in the region seems no closer. The simple fact is that the West is tacitly allowing the instability to continue a situation that favors Russia as it seeks to maintain a big say in the Ukraine affair. On the surface, Russia's ultimate purpose appears to be to maintain its sphere of influence in the region, not to expand its territory. It is apparent, however, that Russia is out to engage in the creation of a new order in areas where the conventional power balance is collapsing.

Likewise, China's action in the South China Sea is heightening tensions with its neighboring countries. China continues reclamation work and construction of artificial islands in the Spratly Islands, in defiance of the territorial claims of Vietnam and the Philippines. In October, the United States sent an Aegis-equipped destroyer to challenge the 12-nautical-mile territorial limits that China claims around the artificial islands, to demonstrate that the freedom of navigation is guaranteed in those waters, followed by the flight of a B-52 strategic bomber over the disputed territory in the South China Sea. So far, the United States and China have refrained from military confrontations, but Beijing shows no signs of making concessions and may declare a new air-defense identification zone over the South China Sea, heightening tensions in the area further.

Reform to promote international cooperation in 2016

No effective reform is in sight in preventing and responding to intrastate violent conflicts. The United States has been slow to respond to the crisis in the Middle East and Asia. The decline of American prowess is recognized worldwide, increasing the instability of the international order. Against the backdrop of such a shift in the balance of power, a few superpowers are tending to intimidate neighboring countries through force of arms.

In 2016, a U.N.-brokered peace process may make progress while the unified attacks against ISIS may proceed. But it remains to be seen how these new developments would result in the creation of a new order. In the Spratly Islands, there is a possibility of tensions being heightened. But it is unlikely there will be any new developments until after the U.S. presidential election. Rather, it is the challenge for us in 2016 to manage the instability and prevent it from worsening.

Performance in 2015

A high-level meeting was held as part of the U.N. General Assembly in December and came up with a review document to sum up 10 years of efforts for better cyber governance since 2005, when a document was adopted at the Tunis session of the World Summit on the Information Society.

Governments' roles to manage the cyber governance system have been taken up on many occasions at U.N.-sponsored meetings in the past decade. But a divergence of views between multi-stakeholders and multilateral entities was not narrowed in the latest review document, which contained only vague wording about ways to manage the Internet platform.

At present, Internet resources are globally governed in accordance with a contract concluded by the ICANN system with the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, an affiliate of the U.S. Department of Commerce, to be commissioned to maintain the level of Internet services in a specified range. But such a commissioned service is unlikely to be extended, and the U.S. government's supervision of the ICANN system under an attached clause is expected to be repealed. A final proposal to introduce a new regime is likely to be presented in January. This can be seen as a favorable move because confusion over the U.S. government's role in globally controlling the Internet system will be settled for now. The parties involved initially hoped to launch the new scheme before the expiry of the contract on September 30, 2015, but the schedule was delayed into 2016. Therefore, this cannot be described as an achievement in 2015.

Reform to promote international cooperation in 2016

The United Nations has been holding the Internet Governance Forum (IGF) since 2005, bringing together various stakeholders, including government officials, civil society and technical community. Though mutual understanding has been enhanced through dialogues over the decade, formal agreements tend to be elusive.

On the other hand, various Internet-related issues have been brought to light in our economic activities and civil life, such as copyright infringement, child pornography, data privacy and cybercrime. The situation necessitates that we address the issue of cyber governance by separating the "governance of the Internet" as social infrastructure from "governance on the Internet" that would dictate our economic activities and civil life on the premise that the Internet is our social infrastructure.

Therefore, we should find ways to make the IGF function as a platform for nurturing order, rules and governance in tackling issues of cyber governance which cannot be addressed by a single nation.

Performance in 2015

The U.S.-led airstrikes have only kept the IS terrorist force from expanding the areas it occupies as it remains in such important points as Raqqah in Syria, and Mosul in Iraq. The situation in the region is worsening, with the number of displaced people from Syria surpassing 4 million and terrorists infiltrating into European countries pretending to be refugees.

It was once feared that the Iraqi regime might collapse, but it has managed, to a certain extent, to reverse the critical situation in its fight against the IS force. The Iraqi situation is unpredictable, however, as the course of fighting between Iraqi government forces and IS remains uncertain.

It is noteworthy that Russian air operations in Syria since September, coupled with terrorist attacks in Paris in November, contributed to getting the Syrian peace process moving again.

In October, the foreign ministers of 17 countries concerned, including the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and U.N. and EU representatives, gathered in Vienna to discuss the fate of the Syrian regime of President Bashar Assad. Their agreement called for a U.N.-sponsored consultation between the Assad regime and anti-government forces possibly in January 2016, with the hope of inaugurating a transitional regime in six months' time and holding U.N.-monitored elections in 18 months. But the agreed process is unlikely to be implemented easily. Because it remains to be seen how long the confusion in the region will last, the performance of the international community in preventing and responding to intrastate conflict must be graded as "poor."

At a time when there are various U.N. peacekeeping missions in African countries, a comprehensive review of such operations has started. A high-level panel, set up under the U.N. secretary-general to this end, issued a report in June, but it is uncertain whether it will actually help improve the situation.

Reform to promote international cooperation in 2016

As regards the Syrian civil war, we are at a crucial phase. The initiation of the peace talks between the Assad regime and anti-government forces, due for late January in Geneva, was agreed upon at a foreign ministerial conference in Vienna in October 2015 and confirmed in U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254 in December 2015. The launch of the peace process is expected to facilitate humanitarian support for refugees and displaced people, enforcement of a cease-fire, mobilization of U.N. peacekeeping forces, national reconstruction of Syria and elimination of ISIS forces. All the permanent member states of the Security Council support this move. The most effective reform in promoting international cooperation to prevent intrastate violent conflicts in 2016 is for international society to make concerted and unified efforts to support this move.

Performance in 2015

The Ebola epidemic claimed 11,000 lives because the World Health Organization was slow to act to contain the deadly disease. Specifically criticized were a delay in convening its Emergency Committee and declaring a state of emergency, as well as establishing a double decision-making structure involving WHO headquarters and its regional offices. The WHO's governance came into question following its failure to quickly deal with the threat. Various reform measures were proposed by many parties, but no specific changes have been realized as yet to strengthen the WHO.

Reform of the WHO is essential but the world health body itself only seeks an increase in its financial base for better dealing with emergencies. Its responsibility for allowing the epidemic to worsen is vague and has not been fully clarified. There is no prospect that the WHO will be restructured to become an entity with a long-term perspective for dealing with even more serious infections, like the Ebola outbreak, in future.

The Sustained Development Goals, adopted in 2015, had only one item on global health because three items that had been contained in the Millennium Development Goals were combined into one. Threats of infectious diseases and responses to them, the challenges that came to light following the Ebola epidemic in 2015, have not been fully considered. Each country's public health and medical systems must be improved, but it is uncertain how the Universal Health Coverage and other problems mentioned in the SDGs will be implemented in a viable manner, including financing plans for them.

Reform to promote international cooperation in 2016

A leaders' meeting of the Group of Seven major economies, planned to be held in Japan in May 2016, will become an occasion for a comprehensive discussion of global health-related issues, including various threats expected to emerge in future. It is hoped that an agreement will be reached for creating a framework to finance and manage the proposed Universal Health Coverage (UHC), as envisaged by Japan and other countries.

When the major countries held a summit under the chair of Japan in Okinawa in 2000, a global fund was launched to eliminate the three most serious infectious diseases -- the HIV virus, pneumonia and malaria. A similar approach should be adopted this time, too. If it is difficult to do so, various resources, including the global fund, should be combined so that the UHC may be successfully launched to strengthen the World Health Organization.

Performance in 2015

The military operations led by the United States and European countries have successfully seized back part of the areas controlled by the Islamic State terrorist force in Syria and neighboring regions, but militant Jihadist groups have expanded their influence in that part of the world, spreading their ideologies from their bases to other regions. Global terrorist threats have entered a new phase following the so-called home-grown terrorist acts by IS followers in the past months. The theater of terrorist activities has spread to regions other than the Middle East, including Paris and other European cities, Jakarta and elsewhere in Asia, and places in Africa and North America.

International society has launched multilateral anti-terrorist campaigns, mainly through the United Nations, in an attempt to check the movements of personnel, goods and money, but these efforts fell short of halting serious terrorist acts mainly by IS fighters in 2015. The U.N. Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution in December that aimed to cut off funding channels for IS operations. This was a favorable development, but it is uncertain how effective the resolution will be in eliminating IS and other terrorist acts because similar efforts in the past failed to actually contain terrorist activities. It remains unknown, either, if sanctions lists adopted by the Security Council will actually be implemented. The slowdown of the world economy, coupled with recent declines in resources prices, has adversely affected economically fragile countries in the Middle East, and those among emerging and developing countries in Africa and Central Asia. But there are no effective cooperative measures by the inte
rnational community to support these affected countries.

Reform to promote international cooperation in 2016

There is no reform plan to achieve a dramatic breakthrough in combating transnational terrorism. What international society must do is strengthen solidarity to eliminate the menace from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a hotbed of transnational terrorism.

To this end, it is imperative to stabilize the Syrian situation. In line with U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254, adopted in December 2015, peace talks between the Syrian government and anti-government forces should be launched, followed by a series of political processes that includes a cease-fire across Syria.

Second, more effective international collaboration is necessary to counter IS. Reinforcement of an arms export embargo is not enough. Stricter sanctions should be imposed and border patrols must be jointly reinforced. Cooperation by all the countries concerned is indispensable to ensure the effective implementation of the measures, adopted at the U.N. Security Council toward the year-end, to cut off funding to ISIS and to increase the sanctions list of individuals affiliated with the Jihadist force. Ultimately, international society should share information to check the movements of personnel, goods and money to ISIS.

Meanwhile, unity in international society must be strengthened to prevent the spread of the threat of terrorism to other regions. A large number of youths have joined ISIS and received military training. These foreign combatants carried out terrorist acts in their home countries in 2015. Each country must clamp down on such flows of personnel and stop the spread of terrorism to the entire world.

Respondents were asked to assess the state of international cooperation on five dimensions:

• How did the world do, in terms of performance, over the past year in addressing each specific challenge?
• How did the world do overall on international cooperation in 2015?
• How should these challenges be ranked, in terms of their relative importance?
• Which of these problems offers the greatest opportunity for breakthrough in the coming year?
• What one reform would do the most to improve international cooperation on each issue in 2016?　

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